The war against Iran has not ended; it is entering a new phase with several defining characteristics. Most notably, it may evolve into a war of attrition, with the United States potentially seeking to close the Strait of Hormuz and restrict Iran’s oil exports, mirroring Iran’s own disruptions to regional shipping. If executed strategically, such a blockade could have a measurable impact over time. However, Iran could retaliate by targeting the oil export infrastructure of neighboring countries, including Oman, further destabilizing global energy markets and driving up oil prices — including in the United States — an unfavorable scenario ahead of midterm elections. Iranian military officials have also warned that any US naval movement through the Strait of Hormuz could be met with direct attacks.
From the outset, both the trajectory and timing of this conflict have been unpredictable, and the same uncertainty applies to its outcome. Without structural change within Iran’s political system, it remains difficult to assess what level of success the United States and Israel can realistically achieve. Even under significant economic pressure, Iran may be able to endure and continue resisting without a collapse of its governing system.
Diplomatic prospects remain equally uncertain. While multiple countries are attempting to mediate, no clear negotiation framework has emerged. What is certain, however, is that the Middle East will not be the same after this conflict. At the same time, it is far too early to speak of peace — particularly in the context of US–Iran relations. The recent two-week ceasefire briefly raised hopes, but the breakdown of negotiations has reinforced the fragility of any diplomatic progress. In the near term, the United States may carry out additional strikes on Iranian infrastructure, while continuing to reposition military assets across regional bases. A prolonged conflict risks spilling over beyond Iran, affecting neighboring states that are not directly involved.
Armenia is one such country facing growing risks. Recent statements by Armenia’s foreign minister indicate limited progress on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project, suggesting potential delays. This likely reflects a cautious U.S. approach to maintaining a presence near Iran under current conditions. Importantly, TRIPP is not merely a transport corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan; it is part of a broader regional strategy aimed at bypassing Iran. Delays in its implementation could create new geopolitical pressures. Azerbaijan, seeking rapid connectivity with Nakhichevan, may pursue alternative means to secure a corridor, citing instability in Iran as justification. This, in turn, could place additional strain on the already fragile Armenian–Azerbaijani peace process. Further delays in signing a peace agreement pose another challenge for Armenia, as the agreement and the TRIPP currently serve as the primary mechanism maintaining relative stability in the South Caucasus.
Another challenge for Armenia is the disruptions to regional airspace that are creating logistical and economic pressures. Many airlines, including Middle Eastern airlines previously relied on Iranian airspace to reach Armenia; with those routes now restricted, flights have become longer and more expensive. This not only affects connectivity but also threatens the growth of tourism. Zvartnots International Airport alone handled approximately 6 million passengers last year, underscoring the scale of potential impact.
Rising fuel costs and extended air routes are likely to place additional strain on Armenia’s economy, directly linked to the broader conflict. The situation is further complicated by the potential decline in trade through the Armenia–Iran border and reduced cooperation in key sectors such as energy. Ultimately, this war is not only reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East and impacting the global economy. It is also placing significant pressure on smaller regional states like Armenia, the economic resilience of which are far more limited.
