Currently, the Trump administration lacks a clear strategy regarding Iran, evidenced by inconsistent statements from administration members on US policy. US President Donald Trump’s potential normalization of relations with Iran would involve negotiations and binding agreements, which I believe both Iran and Trump would honor.
Trump’s past withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal stemmed from his lack of involvement in its creation and his perception of it as detrimental to US interests. Interestingly, the future of Section 907 enforcement is a key indicator. US security assistance to Azerbaijan, consistently framed as a countermeasure against Iran, implies continued support and signals potential action against Iran under the Trump administration. The US president’s annual waiver of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act of 1992, an ongoing practice since 2002, stems from the absence of a definitive US strategy regarding Iran.
Unrefuted reports in US media outlets suggest Trump has approached the Russian president to mediate a potential normalization of relations between Iran and the US, indicating a possible improvement in relations. This is a positive development, particularly given national intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard’s assertion that US intelligence currently believes Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, likely influencing Trump’s decision to grant Iran two months to begin negotiations.
Despite hawkish voices within Trump’s team, advocates for negotiation persist, as exemplified by Gabbard’s cautionary stance. A peaceful approach will definitely be supported by top diplomat Marco Rubio, who will lead the negotiations if the final decision is made. However, as a final decision is still not here, it is obvious that the US is working with all regional partners in the region to prepare for any eventuality involving Iran.
In this regard Turkey is a key actor, and recent US diplomacy has engaged with it to de-escalate regional tensions stemming from Turkish support for Baku’s aggressive rhetoric. Escalation would undermine both US-Russia negotiations, given Russia’s likely involvement in possible developments, and potential US-Iran talks. As Iran’s foreign minister met with Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan, Turkey’s foreign minister met with Rubio in Washington, D.C. Following the meeting, Rubio called the Armenian prime minister but not Azerbaijan’s foreign minister. This may suggests that any agreement with Azerbaijan might be facilitated through Turkey. This also suggests Rubio may have delivered messages to Yerevan and received some from Armenia concerning regional developments around Iran.
It should always be kept in mind that it is clear from Iran’s statements that if actions were taken by Azerbaijan against the Syunik region of Armenia, Tehran would be compelled to take measures to prevent the loss of its external border, which, in turn, would lead to Turkey’s involvement if there are clashes between Iran and Azerbaijan. Israel would undoubtedly take advantage of such developments. Besides Israel, Turkey also opposes US-Iran normalization, fearing it would diminish Turkey’s strategic value to the US while simultaneously bolstering Iran’s regional influence.
Iran remains Turkey’s main regional competitor. Despite Israel’s influence on Trump, the latter prioritizes US interests regarding Iran. While a US-Iran deal may not benefit Israel, it could serve US strategic goals, particularly in countering China. Trump’s “America First” policy underscores that US and Israeli interests are not always 100 percent aligned.
Of course, the best possible development for Yerevan would be the normalization of relations between Iran and the US. The lifting of restrictions on Iran could help Yerevan establish more active economic, trade, and political ties with Tehran. Moreover, improved US-Iran relations could reduce Turkey’s role and significance in the region, which would serve as an additional deterrent against potential Turkish and Azerbaijani aggression. In any case, it is in Yerevan’s best interests to see both improved US-Russia and US-Iran relations, as this would finally allow Armenia to exist in a cooperative rather than a competitive environment — something that is of utmost importance for the country’s security.
Originally published at https://mirrorspectator.com/2025/03/28/developments-regarding-iran-should-be-armenias-primary-concern/
