Although Trump won’t take office until January 20, his potential appointments already provide valuable insight into his foreign policy direction. While he will have opportunities to clarify his stance through upcoming interviews and his inauguration speech, preliminary information allows us to begin forming ideas about his approach to global affairs. In fact, the future Trump administration is rapidly taking shape, with key foreign policy strategies already emerging. By analyzing the appointments of individuals to various positions and their past statements on specific foreign policy topics, we can gain a clearer understanding of the administration’s potential priorities.
Let’s begin with the potential top diplomat under Trump, who is expected to replace Secretary Blinken early next year. Senator Marco Rubio has been nominated as secretary of state. Rubio advocates a strong stance against China, unwavering support for Israel, and has cultivated a solid relationship with the Armenian community. He has consistently promoted tough policies towards Turkey and Azerbaijan, as reflected in his statements on Twitter. While this may not directly impact the Armenian community or its organizations, Rubio’s general advocacy for hardline foreign policies — against China, Iran, and some Latin American and Asian countries — could shape the administration’s approach.
Pete Hegseth has been nominated as secretary of defense. He is known for his firm stance on Iran, strong pro-Israeli policies in the Middle East, and a hard line on China, often emphasizing the latter’s military expansion as a challenge to US dominance. Regarding Russia, Hegseth has remarked, “I don’t want American intervention pushing deeply into Europe, making [Russia] feel cornered enough to consider the use of nukes.” He has also criticized US expenditures in Afghanistan and Iraq, warning against repeating such strategies in Ukraine.
Congressman Mike Waltz, appointed as National Security Advisor, shares a similarly firm approach toward China and Iran. Meanwhile, John Ratcliffe, set to lead the CIA, has prioritized countering China as a key policy focus.
Tulsi Gabbard, a prominent ostensibly pro-Armenian figure in American politics who visited Artsakh in 2017 and contributed to the All-Armenia Fund, has been chosen to lead the National Intelligence Service. In this role, she will oversee 18 intelligence agencies and serve as the president’s primary intelligence advisor.
Additionally, Robert Kennedy, another ostensibly pro-Armenian figure, is expected to head the Department of Health and Human Services.
These appointments open new opportunities for the Armenian community and organizations to engage actively with Trump’s Republican administration — something they struggled to achieve during his previous presidency. Although some individuals in the administration, like Vivek Ramaswamy, may not be directly involved in foreign policy, their support could still significantly benefit efforts to advance Armenian issues.
Regarding Armenia and its security, several critical factors and scenarios must be considered. If Trump fails to end the war in Ukraine and US-Russia relations deteriorate further while simultaneously intensifying pressure on Iran or engaging in direct military action against it, the consequences for Armenia could be disastrous. Armenia’s interests are better served by a potential warming of US-Russia relations and a reduction in US-Iran tensions, akin to the dynamics under Obama’s presidency.
However, given Trump’s team and the policies of its members, there is a strong likelihood of prioritizing support for Israel and maintaining a hardline approach toward Iran. On the issue of China, there appears to be a consensus within Trump’s political team regarding a tough stance.
Nonetheless, the possibility of improved US-Russia relations during Trump’s presidency remains a potential “window of opportunity” for Armenia. The key question is whether Trump will position himself as a peacemaker and dealmaker, as he promised during his campaign, or if he will lean more towards being an unequivocal and steadfast supporter of Israel, as he has stated previously.
Originally published at https://mirrorspectator.com/2024/11/15/possible-impact-of-trumps-cabinet-selections-on-us-foreign-policy/
