On June 13, Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran, conducting “Operation Rising Lion.” This direct use of force signified a serious escalation of the tense relations between the countries, leading them to conduct airstrikes against one another for more than a few days now. As of June 18, Israel has launched more than 400 ballistic missiles and hundreds of UAVs. The Israeli government claims that the strike was a “preemptive” one, meant to address an immediate, inevitable threat because “Tehran already had the capacity to build nine nuclear bombs.” Israel has managed to hit more than 100 major targets in Iran, including nuclear facilities (the Natanz nuclear site and the nuclear research center in Isfahan) and killed numerous senior military commanders and scientists.
The escalation followed the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog report stating “Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels.” Simultaneously, the Trump administration was trying to reach a peace deal with Iran but to no avail after a few rounds of negotiations. In his social media outlet Truth, Trump said that he had given it a 60-day ultimatum to make a deal, and, perhaps not coincidentally, the day of the attack was day 61.
Although the US government denies any direct involvement with the attack, it strongly urged Iran against taking any actions against the US Armed Forces, with its president declaring: “the full strength and might of the US Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before.” The G7 leaders have also expressed their support for Israel in a statement affirming that “Israel has a right to defend itself.” So far the rhetoric from all sides has been quite strong, with Iran in turn promising “a great surprise – one that the world will remember for centuries” and the US President urging Iran to accept “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.”
Among the countries affected by this conflict is Armenia. For Armenia it is fraught with numerous challenges affecting its security and economy as well as demographic factors. Against the backdrop of this conflict Azerbaijan and Turkey are conducting military drills in the Nakhijevan region bordering Armenia. According to the press service of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, “Tank, mechanized, and sabotage units will carry out various training-combat tasks with the support of artillery, air defense units, and aviation.” This is especially alarming when we take into account the fact that between July and August in 2020, just before Azerbaijan launched a full-scale war against Artsakh and Armenia, it also conducted joint drills with Turkey in the Nakhijevan region.
In addition, Azerbaijan continues to raise the issue of the so-called “Zangezur Corridor.” Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, during the GLOBSEC 2025 forum in the Czech Republic on June 14 demanded the “Zangezur Corridor” be opened when responding to a question about Armenia’s Crossroads of Peace proposal. Given that Iran, the only major power in the region directly opposing the idea of opening this corridor, is currently in a dire state, it will not be able to oppose this decision if the Armenian authorities, Azerbaijan and Turkey decide to open the corridor, with the latter two countries taking advantage of the current situation in the region. On top of that, the US embassy in Armenia has issued a warning to exercise caution in Armenia, including avoiding certain locations connected to the Iranian government such as the Iranian Embassy in Yerevan, the Iranian Consulate in Syunik, the Iran Trade Center, and the Blue Mosque.
The Armenian economy also faces serious problems now. Currently a number of cargoes are standing in the port of Bandar Abbas, and others standing on the roads not being able to cross the border. So, export and import issues arise not to and from Iran but also those cargos that are just transported through Iranian territory.
After Trump’s statement that “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” a lot of Iranians fled the country. Having a border with Iran, Armenia is one of the countries they chose to flee to. The bordering Armenian region, Syunik, faces serious danger, as there is a possibility that a huge number of Turkic-speaking refugees from northern Iran can enter Syunik. Currently there are massive buildups of cargo trucks and people at the border. Trucks are parked in a row on the right side of the road for about 2 kilometers. Iranians crossing the border are trying to travel to Yerevan, increasing taxi prices up to $350. Armenian servicemen working on the border stated that crossings of the Armenia-Iran border by Iranian residents have increased several times since the start of the military operations.
If we look at the situation geopolitically, the US–Iran negotiations, which effectively collapsed due to the Israel–Iran war, would have undoubtedly had positive outcomes for Armenia if an agreement had been reached. The same applies, of course, to the normalization of US–Russia relations, where there has also been no significant progress. These are processes of vital importance for Armenia. Their failure — and the resulting weakening of Russia and Iran’s positions, and consequently their diminishing influence in the South Caucasus, particularly against the backdrop of the United States’ passive stance, disrupts the already fragile balance of power in the region. As a result, Turkey is becoming an increasingly influential and powerful player in the South Caucasus, capable of advancing its regional interests through Azerbaijan. This includes the so-called Zangezur Corridor, which not only would connect Azerbaijan and Turkey but also may serve as a link to the broader Turkic world. If, in the coming days, Trump announces his intention to join in certain actions against Iran or to provide Israel with unprecedented military assistance, the situation will become even more complicated for Armenia.
Originally published at https://mirrorspectator.com/2025/06/18/implications-of-the-iran-israel-conflict-for-armenia/
