Days ago, after three years of silence, the US and Russian interacted for the first time at the highest level. This long-awaited event was closely watched by nations affected by the ongoing brutal war between Russia and Ukraine, in which the latter received from the Biden administration.
US President Donald Trump’s stance on this issue is multifaceted and requires consideration from various angles. Domestically, he opposes spending billions on Ukraine and prolonging the war. From a foreign policy viewpoint, the main objective of his administration has been to counter China, with a key strategy being to isolate it from Russia or at least make Russia neutral. However, this goal has been complicated by US sanctions against Russia, which have driven the latter to rely more heavily on China for goods, products, technology and resources. Trump announced a likely meeting in Saudi Arabia, an interesting choice given numerous alternatives like India, Hungary, Turkey, the UAE or other countries which enjoy good relations with both Russia and the US.
Such a decision highlights the US goal of countering China, as Saudi Arabia wields considerable influence over Russia and has strong ties with it. Additionally, while Saudi Arabia was a strategic ally of the US and a key opponent of Iran, it recently established diplomatic relations with Iran through China’s mediation, underscoring China’s rising influence in global affairs, particularly in the Middle East. China’s increasing influence in the Middle East, Asia, and Eurasia poses a challenge for Moscow too. While their interests align against Washington’s anti-Russian and anti-Chinese stance, it’s difficult to believe that Russia does not see China as its primary competitor in Africa and, more critically, in the Middle East and Central Asia, which are vital regions for Russian interests. To reduce Chinese influence over the Saudis, the US might need some support from Russia too.
The phone conversation between the US and Russian presidents lasted approximately 1.5 hours, covering various topics, including trade partnerships between the two countries. For trade to proceed, Washington would need to lift the sanctions imposed by the Biden administration. In fact, Trump is the only US leader with significant influence over both Ukraine and Russia. While his influence on Kyiv is evident, his leverage over Moscow comes in the form of approximately 25,000 sanctions, which he can use as a bargaining tool in negotiating a potential peace treaty with Ukraine. Of course not all of them will be lifted but some significant amount of sanctions might be lifted if the deal is done. For comparison, there are about 8000 sanctions imposed on Iran since the Iranian revolution in 1979.
During the conversation, topics such as the Middle East settlement and the Iranian nuclear program were discussed according to the official statement. This means there is a global understanding between the two on these important issues.
Moreover, the president of Russia invited President Trump to visit Moscow and expressed his willingness to host American officials in Russia to work on areas of mutual interest, including the Ukrainian settlement. President Vladimir Putin and Trump agreed to continue personal contacts, including arranging face-to-face meetings. It cannot be ruled out that the next meeting after Saudi Arabia may take place in Moscow.
The basis for making such an assumption is as follows: Following a 90-minute phone call with Putin, Trump stated on his Truth Social account that they reflected on their nations’ shared history and their successful collaboration during World War II, noting the significant losses both Russia and the US endured. He wrote that Putin invited Trump to visit Moscow and offered to host US officials to discuss mutual interests, including the Ukrainian situation. They agreed to maintain personal communication and consider in-person meetings.
Hence, Trump may visit Moscow on May 9 to participate in the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the Allies’ victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. The last time a US president made such a trip was in 2005 when President George W. Bush visited Moscow to follow the Victory Parade with other world leaders.
There is a general consensus that normal relations between Moscow and Washington may foster joint agreements in various fields, promoting stability and predictability in global affairs. It seems that President Trump also thinks this way.
A shift in Russian-American relations is significant for Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government has tried to show allegiance to the West, favoring it over Moscow. However, it appears that Washington also leans towards Moscow.
During his visit to Europe, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made notable remarks about President Trump’s vision for US foreign policy regarding Europe, Russia, Ukraine, and China. He indicated that returning Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders is “an unrealistic objective” for any peace deal and stated that Trump does not support NATO membership for Ukraine as part of a settlement. Instead, Hegseth proposed that security guarantees for Ukraine should involve capable European and non-European troops. He urged European NATO allies to take primary responsibility for their defense and suggested that reducing American troop numbers in Europe might be part of negotiations with Russia to resolve the Ukraine conflict. Hegseth also denied allegations that the US is betraying Ukraine by initiating negotiations about its future without Kiev’s full involvement.
Most importantly, he announced a shift in America’s security priorities, emphasizing homeland security over European defense and highlighting the challenge posed by China to the US. This suggests that Washington and the West may lose interest in an anti-Russian stance or changes in foreign policy concerning Russia’s neighboring countries or regions. It is likely that Russia and the US will also align their policies and priorities in various regions, including the South Caucasus. This indicates a low interest in Armenia, and the European integration law passed by the Armenian parliament just hours before the Trump-Putin phone call — marking a shift in their relations — may have been poorly timed.
Originally published at https://mirrorspectator.com/2025/02/17/a-shift-in-russian-american-relations-has-begun-what-does-it-mean-for-armenia/
