The situation in the South Caucasus region in general and Armenia in particular is quite complicated. The region has simply become a powder keg and there are a number of good reasons for that. The war in the Ukraine takes away all of Russia’s resources and Moscow is simply not able to serve its national interests in the South Caucasus, including Artsakh, where Moscow is unable to fulfill the obligations of its peacekeeping mission. Of course Turkey and Azerbaijan take advantage of such a situation. Realizing that Russia does not want to open a second front line against it in the South Caucasus, Russia is forced by this tandem to make concessions to Turkish and Azerbaijani demands. Moscow definitely makes concessions at the expense of Armenia and Artsakh and not at the expense of its national interests.
At the same time, Iran is in a rather difficult state of affairs. Internal processes are developing very rapidly and the demonstrations are spread around the country. Iran is also unable to serve its external interests in full, including in the South Caucasus, especially in the context of the new realities formed as a result of the war in 2020 and Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia. Turkey wants to quickly take advantage of the momentum by preventing the possible strengthening of Iran’s positions in the South Caucasus as a result of the decrease in Russian influence. The situation is further complicated when the US announces that Iran is extremely close to developing a nuclear weapon and that the US and its allies must act as quickly as possible to prevent it from happening.
But the most dramatic thing is that the Armenian authorities have totally failed in their foreign policy. Not only has Armenia not achieved any tangible foreign policy achievement since the revolution in 2018, the Armenian authorities have failed the negotiations process, then the war, and now the negotiations are failed again and Artsakh is in blockade. The Armenian government failed to work properly and professionally with the international community, allied and friendly countries, which in turn led to the passive state of the international community and lack of action. Thus, we find ourselves in such a condition because of our failures, no matter how much we try to blame others. Amid dangerous storms and wild hurricanes in world politics, the one who leads the Armenian nation, the captain of our ship, and the one who is responsible for our security is a wrecker.