TRiUMPh!!! Will Trump be Reelected?

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On the Eve of 2016 Presidential elections most popular US mass media outlets were actively injecting the idea of having the first woman president in US history. As a result, a public perception was formulated, according to which Hillary Clinton is the candidate who would beat Donald Trump in 2016 elections. The peak of the chain of these predictions became the 125 thousand wasted copies of Newsweek magazine-not only the editor of this magazine decided to publish so many copies of the magazine with “Madam President, Hillary Clinton’s Historic Journey” title on it, but also distributed them to recall them later.

Such prominent mass media outlets, as The New York Times, The Washington Post, and CNN were propagating the high probability of Hillary’s victory. According to CNN, 24 hours prior to Election Day the statistics showed that the chance of Hillary Clinton’s victory was 91%, compared to Trump’s 9%, and she would beat him by 4-point margin: 46% to 42%. The predictions didn’t differ significantly in The New York Times, where Hillary Clinton’s odds stood at 85%, while Trump’s was 15%. On the other hand, The Washington Post went even further by counting the possible electoral votes of the two presidential candidates, according to which, Hillary Clinton by all means would have 275 electoral votes, while Trump would not be able to cross the threshold of 270 electoral votes. Despite their expectations, Trump won the elections by 304 electoral votes versus Hillary Clinton’s 227 electoral votes. However, the popular votes were in favor of Hillary Clinton. She got 48.5% of votes in contrast with Trump’s 46.4%.

Traditionally, there are some groups in the USA who lean towards Republicans. Among these groups is the military that are mostly conservative by affiliation. About 60% of veterans and 44% of non-veteran military voted for Trump.  Another conservative group that voted for Trump in 2016 elections is the conservative-Christian community, specifically, Evangelical community. They favor Trump mostly because of his pro-Israel policy. That’s why 80% of all Evangelical Christians voted for Trump.

After 2016 elections the Republican Party took control of both the bicameral legislative and executive branches of power. But the situation changed during 2018 midterm elections, where Democrats took the House of Representatives (239-Democrats, 202-Republicans), while the Republicans remained dominant in the Senate (53-Republicans, 46-Democrats). 

In the upcoming 2020 presidential elections, Trump is so far the leading candidate. Different sources give different statistics for his approval rating. When taking office in 2017, some sources estimated his approval rating 45.5% and some- 56%.  On average, Trump’s approval rating ranges between 40-50%. Compared with the approval rating of other presidents for the same period of time, Trump’s rating is approximately similar to theirs.

Based on the facts mentioned above, Trump has more chances to win in 2020 Presidential Elections than he had in 2016. First, there is no alternative within the Republican Party. Second, a candidate from Democratic Party who can compete with Donald Trump has not appeared yet. Even the apparent pro-democratic CNN accepts that Trump has all the chances to win elections at the same time mentioning that the possible Democrat candidate who can compete with Trump is former vice-president Joe Biden, who according to the results of The Washington Post-ABC News poll, leads Trump 53%-43%. But these numbers do not seem credible having the well-known experience of 2016 elections. 

Thus, once again Trump is going to stay loyal to his surname (to trump is to outrank or defeat someone or something, often in a highly public way) and be reelected in 2020.