US-Iranian relations are going through one of the most tense phases in their history. The tension is rising but there is still no open confrontation. Although Washington’s political elite is declaring that they are not aiming at changing the authorities in Iran, the USA is ready to make use of the moment if political processes, social or political wave of protests raise in Iran. At the same time Washington’s political elite understands that any miscounted or careless policy in relation to Iran will result in excessive dangerous consequences for the political future of Trump’s administration
Before 2020 November Elections, any failure can mean defeat for Trump. There is precedent in 1980- US president Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan as a result of the events evolving around Iran. In this context the stakes are also very high for the US strategic partner-Israel. Donald Trump, if is not the most pro-Israeli president, fully backs its strategic ally Israel with all its powers. Though now it is unlikely that Trump will lose, but if that happens it will mean victory for Joe Biden, who as Vice-President under Barack Obama, had quite mild policy towards Iran, i.e. Trump’s defeat will mean milder policy towards Iran, revival of nuclear deal and probably decrease of tension.This is undoubtedly a direct threat to Israel, which considered the US-Iran nuclear deal unacceptable in the form signed by Obama’s administration. Taking into account these risks as well as the fact that Trump’s main constituents are the American Evangelicals, 81% of whom voted for Trump in 2016 and for whom the existence of Israel state is of pivotal importance, then the picture becomes more apparent. The 26% of the US population are Evangelicals, among which Trump has unsurpassed approved rating of about 80%.
Connected with this circumstance, as well as because of the influential jewish lobbying Trump has formulated a tough policy towards Iran, which in contrast to Obama’s policy, is very beneficial for Israel. Trump’s administration, taking into account all this, is exercising tough but a cautious policy towards Iran and a vivid proof for that is Iran’s shooting of US UAV and the subsequent events. On June 20 Iran shot USA’s UAV, which was worth $180 million. Iran asserted that this equipment as well as another aircraft of US air forces with 35 soldiers on it have trespassed the air space of Iran. Although Iranian anti-aircraft defence could have shot the military aircraft as well, it had wisely shot UAV avoiding human losses. When the situation was reported to Trump and a command of a retaliation strike was asked for, Trump knowing that this strike would deprive 150 people of life, avoided human losses by substantiating that the Iranians hadn’t killed any American soldier.
No side seems to cross the red line, which can play a decisive role and become the basis for military collision. In Tehran, there is the perception that they are dealing with a nuclear superpower, which has the most powerful army in the world. Whereas, in the Washington there is the understanding that they are dealing with a powerful state- regional superpower, whose military capability has access not only to the territory of US’s partner Israel, but also to all American bases in the region. In this context Armenia neither has National Security Strategy, nor plan of actions or succession of steps in case of US-Iran possible clash.
Originally published in Hraparak.am